Enrollment Decline at GRCSA
Economic, Cultural, and Organizational Factors
Kevin R. den Dulk
Since its first academic year in 1969-70, the Grand Rapids Christian Schools Association (GRCSA) has faced the persistent challenge of enrollment decline. The effects have been pervasive, straining everything from morale to finances. Naturally, there has been a great deal of interest in the causes of this decline, and various explanations have developed out of the experience of administrators, teachers, and parents.
The recent strategic planning process at GRCSA has heightened the importance of a clear-eyed view of enrollment decline. In particular, the School Program Task Force has been considering consolidation of GRCSA's urban schools to address the financial and other effects of enrollment challenges. As the Task Force has rightly suggested in its own task statements, a solid understanding of past enrollment patterns is a necessary part of the discussion.
A recent research study provides some preliminary insights into the factors that shape enrollment decline. Several conclusions of the study are particularly important:
- A key predictor of enrollment decline since the 1969-1970 school year has been the proportion of household income that parents commit to Christian education. Enrollment in 1970 (5,209) was 2.14 times what it is today (2,430 in 2007); tuition costs for one elementary school child as a percentage of income in 2007 (12.03 percent) is 2.36 times what it was in 1970 (5.1 percent).click to enlarge
- "White flight" from Grand Rapids is associated with enrollment decline. Since race and income are highly correlated, however, the direct effects of race appear to diminish when controlling for household income, suggesting that race per se is not necessarily a fundamental obstacle to GRCSA enrollment.click to enlarge
- In the two years immediately following a school closure announcement, GRCSA has lost over four times the percentage of students as in non-closure years.click to enlarge
- The erosion of traditional religious support (as measured by CRC membership; click here) is a statistically significant factor in enrollment decline.click to enlarge
- In the 1990s, competition from charter schooling is correlated with enrollment decline. "School choice," however, is a challenge to GRCSA enrollment only to the extent that parents sense (1) a lack of choice within the Christian educational market itself, and (2) priced out of that market.click to enlarge
GRCSA is in a complex environment with interrelated economic, cultural, and organizational pressures. As a result, the decisions GRCSA leaders face are profoundly difficult. Surely a clear view of past experience should guide those decisions. Nevertheless, past experience does not lead inevitably to a particular path. In many ways, the analysis summarized above suggests the potential of innovation and a broad view of the educational market. It also suggests that school closure as a response to enrollment decline is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Download the complete study (84KB PDF) referenced in this summary.
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